If you think a U.S. recession is here or imminent, you're in good company. Most Intrade bettors believe this and probably 99% of journalists and all Democratic office seekers do, too. We'll soon see. For now, I still say the 2008 U.S. recession is oversold. Why the widespread recession fear when unemployment is low, interest rates are low and the Fed is on the case?
I submit there are four false reasons behind the unnecessarily grim outlook for the economy. All of them get a lot of attention. But they can be safely dismissed.
President Bush's unpopularity.
Presidential election year.
Business press incompetence and fear. (no argument from me)
Trouble with numbers.
Good news doesn't sell newspapers.